Headline bias
7,653
USD · futures
Neutral
Tech
-0.80
Sent
+0.38
Fund
+0.75
Score breakdown
Score history (technical component, 60 sessions)
Institutional activity
Institutional readspecs net short
Crowd read (contrarian)crowd leaning long
E-MINI S&P 500 - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
Inflation
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY | 4.02% | re-accelerating |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.79% | re-accelerating |
| PPI Final Demand YoY | 6.35% | re-accelerating |
| Core PCE YoY | 3.12% | re-accelerating |
Expectations
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Inflation 1Y | 2.98% | drifting down |
| Expected Inflation 5Y | 2.77% | drifting up |
| 5Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.39% | in range |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.29% | in range |
Jobs
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 159044k | tightening |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | tight |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 37.81 | tightening |
| Initial Claims | 194k | weakening |
Growth
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP YoY | 2.07% | expanding |
| Retail Sales YoY | 6.29% | expanding |
| Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | contracting |
Activity
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| NY Fed Empire State Mfg | 25.5 | accelerating |
| Philly Fed Mfg Index | 20.9 | accelerating |
| Chicago Fed National Activity | 0.07 | expanding |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.74% | expanding |
Rates
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| US 10Y Yield | 5.13% | stable |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.88% | stable |
| 10Y–2Y Spread | 0.32% | stable |
Technical drivers
Trend structure
Golden cross structure
60-day momentum
Flat
RSI (14)
Momentum negative
20-day strength (z)
Underperforming its own norm
Volatility regime
Compressed volatility
Multi-horizon alignment
Both horizons down
Sentiment drivers
Institutional positioning
specs net short
Crowd sentiment
crowd leaning long
Volatility sentiment
Volatility in line with norm
Inflation backdrop
re-accelerating
Labour market
tightening
Seasonality
80% of 10 years positive
Fundamental drivers
10-year yield
stable
Growth (GDP)
expanding
Core PCE
re-accelerating
Unemployment trend
Stable
Producer prices
re-accelerating
Seasonality · average return by month (10-year)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.86%80% · n=10 | -1.14%40% · n=10 | -1.11%50% · n=10 | +2.46%70% · n=10 | +1.98%80% · n=10 | +1.68%60% · n=10 | +2.54%90% · n=10 | +1.36%60% · n=10 | -0.79%60% · n=10 | +0.30%50% · n=10 | +3.87%80% · n=10 | +0.29%70% · n=10 |